Emerging Market Trends
Meera reads three headlines in one week: "AI tutors are coming", "Colleges pilot digital course packs", "Phone payments break another record". Each could matter to ReShelf, or none of them might. A PM cannot chase every headline. The skill is telling which trends will change what her users actually do.
The rule
A trend matters when it changes what your users do or need.
Trends arrive from four directions:
- Technology: new tools change what is possible. Instant phone payments make small student-to-student deals easy.
- Behaviour: habits shift. More students may choose second-hand books to save money or waste less.
- Regulation and policy: rules reshape the field. If a university updates its syllabi more often, older editions lose value faster.
- Economics: prices and incomes move. Textbook prices rising faster than student budgets push more buyers to look for used copies.
A trend differs from a fad in staying power. A fad spikes and fades; a trend shows steady movement, in several independent sources, over more than one season. One viral video is a spike. Three semesters of rising second-hand sales across many campuses is a trend.
Every trend is an opportunity, a threat, or both. Digital course packs threaten ReShelf's printed-book trade, yet the same shift could open a new need, such as trading the calculators and devices those courses require.
The shortcut
For each trend, fill in one sentence: "Because of [trend], our users will [change], so we should [watch / act / ignore]." If you cannot fill the middle blank with a concrete change in behaviour, the trend does not matter to you yet.
Digital course packs
Because colleges are piloting digital packs, first-years may buy fewer printed books, so we should watch: track the share of course books that are still printed each term.
The trap is chasing headlines: rebuilding a roadmap around a buzzword before you can name the behaviour it will change for your users.
Drills
Answer fast — trust the rule.
Which is most likely a trend rather than a fad?
A university starts updating syllabi every year instead of every five. What kind of trend is this, and what does it mean for ReShelf?
Meera can't finish "Because of AI tutors, our users will ___" with any change in how they get books. What should she do?
For ReShelf's current business, colleges adopting digital course packs is mainly:
Remember
- A trend matters when it changes what your users do or need.
- Fill the sentence: because of the trend, users will change, so we watch, act or ignore.
- Trap: chasing a buzzword before you can name the behaviour it changes.